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Earthquake Hazard Analysis of Ankara Province and Its Surroundings with Gumbel Extreme Values Method

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 391 - 407, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1393858

Abstract

The aim of the study is to examine Ankara, the capital of Türkiye, in terms of seismicity and earthquake hazard, and to determine earthquake hazard parameters, by using earthquake data with Mw ≥ 4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2020 and using the Gumbel Extreme Value Method. The earthquake hazard analysis of Ankara province was made by using earthquakes falling in eight source regions within the area limited by the coordinates of 380 – 420 N latitude and 300 – 350 E longitude. Recurrence intervals of earthquakes large enough to cause damage in each source region, possible maximum earthquake magnitudes and probabilities of earthquakes of different magnitudes have been determined. It has been found that the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw ≥ 7.0 occurring in Ankara province and its immediate surroundings in the next 100 years is highest (90%) in the source region of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Zone 1) and its return period is 43 years.

References

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  • Gumbel, L.J. (1958). Statistics of extremes, Columbia University Press, New York, America.
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Gumbel Uç Değerler Yöntemi ile Ankara İli ve Yakın Civarının Deprem Tehlike Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 391 - 407, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1393858

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, 1900 – 2020 yılları arasında meydana gelmiş Mw ≥ 4.0 olan deprem verilerinden yararlanarak ve Gumbel Uç Değerler Yöntemi’ni kullanarak Türkiye’nin başkenti olan Ankara ilini depremsellik ve deprem tehlikesi açısından incelemek ve deprem tehlike parametrelerini belirlemektir. Ankara ilinin deprem tehlike analizi 380 – 420 K enlem ve 300 – 350 D boylam koordinatları ile sınırlandırılmış alan içinde yer alan sekiz kaynak bölge içine düşen depremlerden yararlanarak yapılmıştır. Her kaynak bölgede hasara neden olabilecek büyüklükteki depremlerin yinelenme aralıkları, olası maksimum deprem büyüklükleri ve farklı büyüklükteki depremlerin oluşma olasılıkları saptanmıştır. Ankara ili ve yakın civarı içinde gelecek 100 yıl içinde Mw ≥ 7.0 büyüklüğündeki bir depremin meydana gelme ihtimalinin Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu kaynak bölgesinde (Bölge 1) en yüksek olduğu (%90) ve bunun dönüş periyodunun 43 yıl olduğu bulunmuştur.

References

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  • Ameer, A.S. Sharma, M.L. Wason, H.R. ve Alsinawi, S.A. (2004, August). Seismic Hazard Characterization and Risk Evaluation Using Gumbel’s Method of Extremes (G1 and G3) and G-R Formula for Iraq. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, B.C., Canada.
  • Bayrak, Y. Öztürk, S. Koravos, G.C. Leventakis, G.A. ve Tsapanos T.M. (2007, October). A Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for Different Regions in Turkey and its Surroundings from Gumbel First Asymptotic Distribution and Gutenberg-Richter Relationship Using Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue. International Earthquake Symposium, Kocaeli-Türkiye.
  • Bayrak, Y. Öztürk, S. Koravos, G.C. Leventakis, G.A. ve Tsapanos T.M. (2008). Seismicity assessment for the different regions in and around Turkey based on instrumental data: Gumbel first asymptotic distribution and Gutenberg-Richter cumulative frequency law. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 109-122.
  • Bayrak, Y. Atmış, A.N. Temelli, F. Mohammad, H. Bayrak, E. Yılmaz, Ş. ve Türker, T. (2015). An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in and around Ağrı, Eastern Anatolia, Turkey. Eastern Anatolian Journal of Science, 1(1), 01-09.
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  • Erturaç, M.K. Tüysüz, O. (2009, April). The Neogene stratigraphy and neotectonic evolution of the Amasya region: Middle section of the convex arc of the North Anatolian fault system. 62. Turkey Geological Congress, Ankara.
  • Esat, K. Seyitoğlu, G. Aktuğ, B. Kaypak, B. ve Ecevitoğlu, B. (2021). The northwest central Anatolian contractional area: A neotectonic deformation zone bounded by major strike-slip fault zones in the Anatolian plate. Tectonophysics, 805.
  • Firuzan, E. (2008). Statistical earthquake frequency analysis for western Anatolia. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 17, 741-762.
  • Gencoğlu, S. İnan, E. Güler, H. (1990). Türkiye’nin Deprem Tehlikesi. TMMOB Jeofizik Mühendisleri Odası, Ankara.
  • Gökten, E. ve Varol, B. (2010). General geology of the region and seismic sources. Başokur, A (Ed.), Geological-Geophysical-Geotechnical Properties of Soil West of the City of Ankara and Dynamic Behavior (s. 12-32). Ankara University.
  • Gumbel, L.J. (1935). Les valeurs extremes des distribution statistiques. Ann Inst H Poincare, 5, 815-826.
  • Gumbel, L.J. (1958). Statistics of extremes, Columbia University Press, New York, America.
  • Hiçyılmaz, M. ve Sezer, S. (2020). Earthquake hazard analysis with Poisson and Gumbel Distribution models for Afyonkarahisar province. Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1).
  • Kalafat, D. Güneş, Y. Kekovalı, K. Kara, M. Deniz, P ve Yılmazer, M. (2011). A revised and extended earthquake catalogue for Turkey since 1900 (1900-2010; M ≥ 4.0). İstanbul: Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Publication.
  • Kalafat, D. Güneş, Y. Kekovalı, K. Kara, M. Deniz, P ve Yılmazer, M. (2021). A revised and extended earthquake catalogue for Turkey since 1900 (1900-2010; M ≥ 4.0). İstanbul: Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Publication (unpublished).
  • Karnik, V. ve Hübnerova, Z. (1968). The probability of occurrence of largest earthquakes in the European area. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 70(1), 61-73.
  • Koçyiğit, A. (1991). Changing stress orientation in progressive intracontinental deformation as indicated by the neotectonics of the Ankara region (NW Central Anatolia). TPJD Bülteni, 3(1), 43-55.
  • Koçyiğit, A. (2000). General neotectonic characteristics and seismicity of central Anatolia, Haymana-Tuzgölü-Ulukışla basins. Appl study (Workshop), Turk Pet Geol Spec Publ, 5, 1-26.
  • Koçyiğit, A. Rojay, B. Cihan, M. ve Özacar, A. (2001). The June 6, 2000 Orta (Çankırı, Turkey) earthquake: sourced from a new antithetic sinistral strike-slip structure of the North Anatolian fault sytem, the Dodurga fault zone. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 10, 69-82. Koçyiğit, A. ve Özacar, A.A. (2003). Extensional neotectonic regime through the NE edge of the outer Isparta angle, SW Turkey: New field and seismic data. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 12, 67-90.
  • Koçyiğit, A. (2008). Earthquake sources in Ankara and its surrounding. Pampal, S. ve Özmen, B. (Yay. Haz.) Workshop for Earthquake Hazard and Risk of Ankara, Ankara: Gazi Universitesi.
  • Kürçer, A. (2012). Neotectonic Characteristics and Paleoseismology of Tuz Gölü Fault Zone, Central Anatolia, Turkey (Doktora tezi). Erişim adresi: https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezSorguSonucYeni.jsp
  • Kürçer, A. ve Gökten, E. (2014a). Paleoseismological three dimensional virtual photography method, case study: Duru-2012 trench, Tuz gölü fault zone, central Anatolia, Turkey. Geological Bulletin of Turkey, 57(1), 45-71.
  • Kürçer, A. ve Gökten, E. (2014b). Neotectonic-period characteristics, seismicity, geometry and segmentation of the Tuz gölü fault zone. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 149, 19-68.
  • Mittal, A. Dharmaraju, R. ve Deviel, G. (2008, October). Estimation of probable occurrence of earthquake in Chandigarh region, India. The 12th International Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Advances in Geomechanics (IACMAG), India.
  • Mohammadi, H. ve Bayrak, Y. (2016). An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian plateau based on the Gumbell III distribution. J Seismol, 20, 615-628.
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There are 62 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Seismology
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Bülent Özmen 0000-0002-7043-8329

Publication Date December 31, 2023
Submission Date November 21, 2023
Acceptance Date November 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 7 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Özmen, B. (2023). Gumbel Uç Değerler Yöntemi ile Ankara İli ve Yakın Civarının Deprem Tehlike Analizi. Resilience, 7(2), 391-407. https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1393858