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Büyümenin Savunma Esnekliğinin Tahmin Edilmesi: Bölgelerarası Bir Analiz

Year 2020, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 146 - 160, 26.10.2020

Mert Topcu Kübranur Karlıdağ

Abstract

Benoit’in (1973, 1978) öncü çalışmalarından itibaren savunma ekonomisi literatürü genellikle savunma harcamaları-büyüme ilişki üzerine yoğunlaşmıştır. Literatürdeki bu çalışmalardan çoğu tek ülkeli analiz yaparken, çok ülkeli analiz yapan panel veri çalışmalar ise genellikle örneklemi gelir seviyesine göre sınıflandırmıştır. Bölgesel ve/veya kıtasal bazda yapılan çalışmaların sayısı ise oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu bilgiler ışığında mevcut çalışmanın amacı, 5 ayrı bölgede savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin tahmin edilmesi ve sonuçların bölgesel olarak kıyaslanmasıdır. Bu amaçla, savunma harcamalarıyla genişletilmiş Feder-Ram modeli kullanılarak 1990-2015 döneminde savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisi panel zaman serilerine ait heterojen eğim katsayılarını tahmin etmek için geliştirilen ortalama grup (MG) tahmincileri ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde büyümenin savunma harcamaları esnekliğinin en fazla olduğu bölgenin Avrupa, en düşük olduğu bölgenin ise Orta Doğu olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Savunma Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme Panel Veri Analizi

References

  • Aikaeli J, Mlamka B. (2010). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Africa: A Cross Country Study of 48 States, available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2706037 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2706037
  • Alptekin, V. (2012). Benoit Hipotezi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Ölçeğinde Panel Veriler Yardımıyla Analizi, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(2), 204-215.
  • Awaworyi, S., Ling Yew, S. (2014). Government Transfers and Growth: Is There Evidence of Genuine Effect?, Department of Economics, Monash University.
  • Barro R J, Sala-i-Martin X. (1992). Convergence, Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 223-251.
  • Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280.
  • Biswas B, Ram R (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.
  • Cappelen A, Gleditsch N P, Bjerkholt O. (1984). Military Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries, Journal of Peace Research 21(4), 361-373.
  • Chang T, Lee C-C, Hung K, Lee K-H. (2014). Does Military Spending Really Matter for Economic Growth in China and G7 Countries: The Roles of Dependency and Heterogeneity, Defence and Peace Economics, 25(2), 177-191.
  • Chudik, A., Pesaran, M. H., & Tosetti, E. (2011). Weak and Strong Cross‐Section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels, The Econometrics Journal, 14(1), C45-C90.
  • Dağ, H. (2010). Savunma Harcamalarının Makro Ekonomik Etkileri, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kahramanmaraş. Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Dakurah AH., Davies SP., Biswas, Ram, Sampath RK. (2001). Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A causality analysis, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651-658.
  • Deger, S. ve Ron, S. (1983). Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27(2), 335-353.
  • Dickey, DA., Fuller WA. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dunne, JP., Nikolaidou E. (2012). Defence Spending and Economic Growth in the EU15, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Gökbunar, R., Yanıkkaya, H. (2004). Savunma Harcamalarını Belirleyen Faktörler ve Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 59(1), 159-179.
  • Hou, N. Chen, B. (2013). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence From System GMM Estimates, Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 183-193.
  • Im, KS., Pesaran, MH., Shin, Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
  • Kar, M. Nazlıoğlu, Ş. Ağır, H. (2011). Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in the MENA Countries: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis, Economic Modelling, 28(1-2), 685-693.
  • Kapetanios, G., Pesaran, M. H., Yamagata, T. (2011). Panels With Non-Stationary Multifactor Error Structures, Journal of Econometrics, 160(2), 326-348.
  • Khalid, MA., Noor, ZM. (2015). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 31-39.
  • Kollias, C. Paleologou, SM. (2010). Growth, Investment and Military Expenditure in the European Union-15, Journal of Economic Studies, 37(2), 228-240.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F., Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Mintz, A. Stevenson, RT. (1995). Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the Peace Dividend: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(2), 283-305.
  • Mylonidis, N. (2008). Revisiting The Nexus Between Military Spending and Growth in The European Union, Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 265-272.
  • Özerdem, A. (2015). Savunma Harcamaları ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Örneğinde Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Pan, CI. Chang, T. Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
  • Pesaran, MH.(2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, University of Cambridge, June 2004.
  • Pesaran, MH. (2006). Estimation and İnference in Large Heterogeneous Panels With a Multifactor Error Structure, Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, MH. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, MH. Smith, R. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Pesaran, MH. Tosetti, E, (2011). Large Panels With Common Factors and Spatial Correlation, Journal of Econometrics, 161(2), 182-202.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2010). The Impact of Financial Development on Energy Consumption in Emerging Economies, Energy Policy, 38(5), 2528-2535.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2011). Financial Development and Energy Consumption in Central and Eastern European frontier economies, Energy Policy, 39(2), 999-1006.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2014). The Effect of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions in Emerging Economie, Energy Economics, 41, 147-153.
  • Sandler, T. Hartley, K. (1995). The Economics of Defense, Printed in Great Britain at the University Press, Cambridge.
  • Sarafidis, V. Wansbeek, T. (2012). Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis, Econometric Reviews, 31(5), 483-531.
  • Sümer, K.K. (2005). Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisinin İncelenmesi, Stratejik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, 1(1), 82-91.
  • Tian, N, Dunne, JP. (2013). Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 15-31.
  • Topcu, M. Aras, I. (2013). Economic Impacts of Military Expenditures: a Comparative Analysis on Superpowers of the World, Actual Problems of Economics, 4, 495-506.
  • Topcu, M. Aras, I. (2015). Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Extended Empirical Analysis for the European Union, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(2), 233-246.
  • Topcu, M. Aras, I. Erdoğan, E. (2013). A New Look at Military Expenditure-Growth Nexus in the EU: Old Members vs. New Members, International Journal of Economic Sciences, 2(3), 143-151.
  • Keller, K. Poutvaara, P. & Wagener, A. (2009). Military Draft and Economic Growth in OECD Countries, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(5), 373-393.
  • Yıldırım, J. Sezgin, S. Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-295.

Estimating the Defence Elasticity of Growth: A Cross-Regional Analysis

Year 2020, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 146 - 160, 26.10.2020

Mert Topcu Kübranur Karlıdağ

Abstract

Military economics literature has commonly concentrated upon military expenditures-economic growth nexus since the seminal studies by Benoit (1973, 1978). While most of these studies have focused on single-country analysis, multi-country panel data studies have usually divided the sample in terms of income level. The number of the studies, however, at the regional and/or continental basis is very limited. Given this knowledge, the goal of this study is to estimate the impact of military expenditures on economic growth in 5 different regions and to compare the results with respect to regions. To this end, mean group (MG) estimators developed in order to estimate heterogeneous slope coefficients in panel time series have been employed within a Feder-Ram model augmented with military expenditures over the period 1990-2015. Empirical findings both for the short- and long-run reveal that the military expenditure elasticity of growth is the highest in Europe whereas the Middle East has the lowest.

Keywords

Military Expenditures Economic Growth Panel Data Analysis

References

  • Aikaeli J, Mlamka B. (2010). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Africa: A Cross Country Study of 48 States, available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2706037 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2706037
  • Alptekin, V. (2012). Benoit Hipotezi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Ölçeğinde Panel Veriler Yardımıyla Analizi, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(2), 204-215.
  • Awaworyi, S., Ling Yew, S. (2014). Government Transfers and Growth: Is There Evidence of Genuine Effect?, Department of Economics, Monash University.
  • Barro R J, Sala-i-Martin X. (1992). Convergence, Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 223-251.
  • Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280.
  • Biswas B, Ram R (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.
  • Cappelen A, Gleditsch N P, Bjerkholt O. (1984). Military Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries, Journal of Peace Research 21(4), 361-373.
  • Chang T, Lee C-C, Hung K, Lee K-H. (2014). Does Military Spending Really Matter for Economic Growth in China and G7 Countries: The Roles of Dependency and Heterogeneity, Defence and Peace Economics, 25(2), 177-191.
  • Chudik, A., Pesaran, M. H., & Tosetti, E. (2011). Weak and Strong Cross‐Section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels, The Econometrics Journal, 14(1), C45-C90.
  • Dağ, H. (2010). Savunma Harcamalarının Makro Ekonomik Etkileri, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kahramanmaraş. Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Dakurah AH., Davies SP., Biswas, Ram, Sampath RK. (2001). Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A causality analysis, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 651-658.
  • Deger, S. ve Ron, S. (1983). Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27(2), 335-353.
  • Dickey, DA., Fuller WA. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dunne, JP., Nikolaidou E. (2012). Defence Spending and Economic Growth in the EU15, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Gökbunar, R., Yanıkkaya, H. (2004). Savunma Harcamalarını Belirleyen Faktörler ve Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 59(1), 159-179.
  • Hou, N. Chen, B. (2013). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence From System GMM Estimates, Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 183-193.
  • Im, KS., Pesaran, MH., Shin, Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
  • Kar, M. Nazlıoğlu, Ş. Ağır, H. (2011). Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in the MENA Countries: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis, Economic Modelling, 28(1-2), 685-693.
  • Kapetanios, G., Pesaran, M. H., Yamagata, T. (2011). Panels With Non-Stationary Multifactor Error Structures, Journal of Econometrics, 160(2), 326-348.
  • Khalid, MA., Noor, ZM. (2015). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 31-39.
  • Kollias, C. Paleologou, SM. (2010). Growth, Investment and Military Expenditure in the European Union-15, Journal of Economic Studies, 37(2), 228-240.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F., Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Mintz, A. Stevenson, RT. (1995). Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the Peace Dividend: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(2), 283-305.
  • Mylonidis, N. (2008). Revisiting The Nexus Between Military Spending and Growth in The European Union, Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 265-272.
  • Özerdem, A. (2015). Savunma Harcamaları ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Örneğinde Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Pan, CI. Chang, T. Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
  • Pesaran, MH.(2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, University of Cambridge, June 2004.
  • Pesaran, MH. (2006). Estimation and İnference in Large Heterogeneous Panels With a Multifactor Error Structure, Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, MH. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, MH. Smith, R. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Pesaran, MH. Tosetti, E, (2011). Large Panels With Common Factors and Spatial Correlation, Journal of Econometrics, 161(2), 182-202.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2010). The Impact of Financial Development on Energy Consumption in Emerging Economies, Energy Policy, 38(5), 2528-2535.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2011). Financial Development and Energy Consumption in Central and Eastern European frontier economies, Energy Policy, 39(2), 999-1006.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2014). The Effect of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions in Emerging Economie, Energy Economics, 41, 147-153.
  • Sandler, T. Hartley, K. (1995). The Economics of Defense, Printed in Great Britain at the University Press, Cambridge.
  • Sarafidis, V. Wansbeek, T. (2012). Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis, Econometric Reviews, 31(5), 483-531.
  • Sümer, K.K. (2005). Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisinin İncelenmesi, Stratejik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, 1(1), 82-91.
  • Tian, N, Dunne, JP. (2013). Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 15-31.
  • Topcu, M. Aras, I. (2013). Economic Impacts of Military Expenditures: a Comparative Analysis on Superpowers of the World, Actual Problems of Economics, 4, 495-506.
  • Topcu, M. Aras, I. (2015). Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Extended Empirical Analysis for the European Union, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(2), 233-246.
  • Topcu, M. Aras, I. Erdoğan, E. (2013). A New Look at Military Expenditure-Growth Nexus in the EU: Old Members vs. New Members, International Journal of Economic Sciences, 2(3), 143-151.
  • Keller, K. Poutvaara, P. & Wagener, A. (2009). Military Draft and Economic Growth in OECD Countries, Defence and Peace Economics, 20(5), 373-393.
  • Yıldırım, J. Sezgin, S. Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-295.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mert Topcu 0000-0001-8236-9810

Kübranur Karlıdağ This is me 0000-0002-5928-1906

Publication Date October 26, 2020
Submission Date April 9, 2020
Acceptance Date October 17, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 8 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Topcu, M., & Karlıdağ, K. (2020). Büyümenin Savunma Esnekliğinin Tahmin Edilmesi: Bölgelerarası Bir Analiz. İşletme Ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 146-160.
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