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TÜRKİYE’DE GELİR DAĞILIMI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2018, Volume: 20 Issue: 4, 59 - 76, 31.10.2018

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı gelir dağılımı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki
ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, Türkiye’de 1984-2011 yılları
arasında Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi’nin geçerliliği ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı
kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Çalışmada gelir dağılımını temsilen Gini
katsayısı, ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen ise kişi başına düşen reel gayrisafi yurt
içi hasıla (GSYİH) kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca sendikalaşma oranı, gayri safi
yurtiçi hasıla deflatörü ve toplam vergi gelirlerinin gayrisafi yurt içi
hasılaya oranı modele kontrol değişkenleri olarak eklenmiştir. ARDL (The
Autoregressive Distributed Lag) modeli ile elde edilen bulgular şöyle sıralanabilir:
i) Kuadratik model için elde edilen uzun dönemli katsayılara göre, kişi başına
gelir ile Gini katsayısı arasında ters U şeklinde bir ilişkinin mevcut olduğu
görülmektedir. Bu sonuç Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi’nin 1984-2011 döneminde
Türkiye’de geçerli olduğunu desteklemektedir. ii) Kubik model için elde edilen
uzun dönemli katsayılara göre, kişi başına gelir ile Gini katsayısı arasında
ters N şeklinde bir ilişki mevcuttur.

References

  • Ak, M. Z., & Altıntaş, N. (2016). Kuznets’in Ters U Eğrisi Bağlamında Türkiye’de Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1986-2012. Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(3), 93-102.
  • Anand, S., & Kanbur, S. R. (1993). Inequality and Development a Critique. Journal of Development Economics, 41(1), 19-43.
  • Ang, J. B. (2010). Finance and Inequality: The Case of India. Southern Economic Journal, 76(3), 738-761.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Raymond, C.W.N.G. (2002). Long Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of The ARDL Model. International Journal of Business and Economics, 1 s., 147–155.
  • Barro, R. J. (1999). Inequality, Growth, and Investment. National Bureau of Economic Research. No. w7038.Barro, Robert J. (2008), Inequality and Growth Revisited, ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration, No. 11, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1762Clarke, G., & Xu, L.C., & Zou, H.f. (2006). Finance and Income Inequality: What do the Data Tell Us?. Southern Economic Journal, 72, 578–596.Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı, (2016), http://www.csgb.gov.tr/home/contents/istatistikler/iscisendikauyesayilari/ Erişim Tarihi: 30.06.2017.Dawson, P. J. (1997). On Testing Kuznets' Economic Growth Hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, 4(7), 409-410.Deininger, K., & Squire, L. (1998). New Ways of Looking at Old Issues: Inequality and Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 57(2), 259-287.Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-72. Ding, X., Dong, T., Xu, Y., & Zheng, Z. (2015). Does Economic Growth Positively Affect Income Inequality in China?. Deakin Papers on International Business Economics, 8(1). 1-14
  • Dişbudak, C., & Süslü, B. (2007). Türkiye'de Kişisel Gelir Dağılımını Belirleyen Makroekonomik Faktörler. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 18(65), 1-23.
  • Dobson, S., & Ramlogan, C. (2009). Is There an Openness Kuznets Curve?. Kyklos, 62(2), 226-238.
  • Dünya Bankası, (2016). 14 Haziran tarihinde http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators Erişim Tarihi: 14.06.2017.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
  • Epstein, G. S. & Spiegel, U. (2001), Natural Inequality, Production, and Economic Growth. Labour Economics, 8, 463–473.
  • Gallet, C. A. & Gallet, R. M. (2004). US Growth and Income Inequality: Evidence of Racial Differences. The Social Science Journal, 41(1), 43-51.
  • Galor, O., & Tsiddon, D. (1995). Income Distribution and Growth: the Kuznets Hypothesis Revisited. Economica, 63, 103-117.
  • Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurios Regressions in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Huang, H-C. R., Lin, Y-C., & Yeh, C-C. (2012). An Appropriate Test of the Kuznets Hypothesis, Applied Economics Letters, 19(1), 47-51.
  • Jalil, A. (2012). Modeling Income Inequality and Openness in the Framework of Kuznets Curve: New Evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 309-315.
  • Jaumotte, F., Lall, S., & Papageorgiou, C. (2013). Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization?. IMF Economic Review, 61(2), 271-309.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - with Applications to The Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kuştepeli, Y. (2006). Income Inequality, Growth, and the Enlargement of the European Union. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 42(6), 77-88.
  • Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review, 45, 1-28.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Peter.C.B, P., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root:How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour, The Manchester School, 22, 139-191.
  • List, J. A., & Gallet, C. A. (1999). The Kuznets Curve: What Happens After the Inverted‐U?. Review of Development Economics, 3(2), 200-206.
  • Lundberg, M., & Squire, L. (2003). The Simultaneous Evolution of Growth and Inequality. The Economic Journal, 113(487), 326-344.Mollick, A. V. (2012). Income Inequality in the US: The Kuznets Hypothesis Revisited. Economic Systems, 36(1), 127-144.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Savings and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Test. Applied Economics, 91, 1979–1990.
  • Norris, E. D., Kochhar, K., Suphaphiphat, N., Ricka, F., & Tsounta, E. (2015). Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective. SDN/15/13, IMF Policy Paper, Washington.
  • OECD (2016), https://data.oecd.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 30.06.2017).
  • ONGAN, T. H. (2004). Gelir Eşitsizliği, Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ters U Eğrisi. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 54(1), 153-165.
  • Özdemir, D., Emsen, Ö. S., Gencer, A. H., & Kılıç, C. H. (2011). Ekonomik Büyüme ve Gelir Dağılımı İlişkileri: Geçiş Ekonomileri Deneyimi. In International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 440-447.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. in: S.Storm (Ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, chapter 11, Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, J. S. (2000). Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables. Journal of Econometrics, 97, 293-343.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, J. S. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, s. 289 – 326.
  • Piketty, T., (2005). Top Income Shares in the Long Run: An Overview. Journal of the European Economic Association 3, 382-392.Rodolphe, D. & Verardi, V. (2012). Refitting the Kuznets Curve. Economics Letters 116(2), 258-261.
  • Rubin, A., & Segal, D. (2015). The Effects of Economic Growth on Income Inequality in the US. Journal of Macroeconomics, 45, 258-273.
  • Solt, F. (2009). Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database. Social Science Quarterly, 90, s. 231-242.
  • Tokatlioğlu, İ., & Atan, M. (2007). Türkiye’de Bölgeler Arası Gelişmişlik Düzeyi ve Gelir Dağılımı Eşitsizliği: Kuznets Eğrisi Geçerli Mi?. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 18(65): 25-58.
  • Topuz, S. G., & Dağdemir, Ö. (2016). Ekonomik Büyüme ve Gelir Eşitsizliği İlişkisi: Kuznets Ters-U Hipotezi’nin Geçerliliği. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(13), 115-130.
  • Tribble, R. (1999). A Restatement of the S‐Curve Hypothesis. Review of Development Economics, 3(2), 207-214.
  • TUİK, (2016), http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1011 (Erişim Tarihi: 22.06.2017).
  • Uzgören, N., & Uzgören, E. (2005). Zaman Serilerinde Sahte Regresyon Sorunu ve Reel Kamu Harcamalarına Yönelik Bir Ekonometrik Model Uygulaması, Akademik Bakış, 5, 1-14.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F. (2012). Eğitim Harcamaları, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Gelir Dağılımı İlişkisi, Yayınlanmış Doktora Tezi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Sakarya.
Year 2018, Volume: 20 Issue: 4, 59 - 76, 31.10.2018

Abstract

References

  • Ak, M. Z., & Altıntaş, N. (2016). Kuznets’in Ters U Eğrisi Bağlamında Türkiye’de Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1986-2012. Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(3), 93-102.
  • Anand, S., & Kanbur, S. R. (1993). Inequality and Development a Critique. Journal of Development Economics, 41(1), 19-43.
  • Ang, J. B. (2010). Finance and Inequality: The Case of India. Southern Economic Journal, 76(3), 738-761.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Raymond, C.W.N.G. (2002). Long Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of The ARDL Model. International Journal of Business and Economics, 1 s., 147–155.
  • Barro, R. J. (1999). Inequality, Growth, and Investment. National Bureau of Economic Research. No. w7038.Barro, Robert J. (2008), Inequality and Growth Revisited, ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration, No. 11, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1762Clarke, G., & Xu, L.C., & Zou, H.f. (2006). Finance and Income Inequality: What do the Data Tell Us?. Southern Economic Journal, 72, 578–596.Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı, (2016), http://www.csgb.gov.tr/home/contents/istatistikler/iscisendikauyesayilari/ Erişim Tarihi: 30.06.2017.Dawson, P. J. (1997). On Testing Kuznets' Economic Growth Hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, 4(7), 409-410.Deininger, K., & Squire, L. (1998). New Ways of Looking at Old Issues: Inequality and Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 57(2), 259-287.Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-72. Ding, X., Dong, T., Xu, Y., & Zheng, Z. (2015). Does Economic Growth Positively Affect Income Inequality in China?. Deakin Papers on International Business Economics, 8(1). 1-14
  • Dişbudak, C., & Süslü, B. (2007). Türkiye'de Kişisel Gelir Dağılımını Belirleyen Makroekonomik Faktörler. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 18(65), 1-23.
  • Dobson, S., & Ramlogan, C. (2009). Is There an Openness Kuznets Curve?. Kyklos, 62(2), 226-238.
  • Dünya Bankası, (2016). 14 Haziran tarihinde http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators Erişim Tarihi: 14.06.2017.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
  • Epstein, G. S. & Spiegel, U. (2001), Natural Inequality, Production, and Economic Growth. Labour Economics, 8, 463–473.
  • Gallet, C. A. & Gallet, R. M. (2004). US Growth and Income Inequality: Evidence of Racial Differences. The Social Science Journal, 41(1), 43-51.
  • Galor, O., & Tsiddon, D. (1995). Income Distribution and Growth: the Kuznets Hypothesis Revisited. Economica, 63, 103-117.
  • Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurios Regressions in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Huang, H-C. R., Lin, Y-C., & Yeh, C-C. (2012). An Appropriate Test of the Kuznets Hypothesis, Applied Economics Letters, 19(1), 47-51.
  • Jalil, A. (2012). Modeling Income Inequality and Openness in the Framework of Kuznets Curve: New Evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 309-315.
  • Jaumotte, F., Lall, S., & Papageorgiou, C. (2013). Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization?. IMF Economic Review, 61(2), 271-309.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - with Applications to The Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kuştepeli, Y. (2006). Income Inequality, Growth, and the Enlargement of the European Union. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 42(6), 77-88.
  • Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review, 45, 1-28.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Peter.C.B, P., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root:How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour, The Manchester School, 22, 139-191.
  • List, J. A., & Gallet, C. A. (1999). The Kuznets Curve: What Happens After the Inverted‐U?. Review of Development Economics, 3(2), 200-206.
  • Lundberg, M., & Squire, L. (2003). The Simultaneous Evolution of Growth and Inequality. The Economic Journal, 113(487), 326-344.Mollick, A. V. (2012). Income Inequality in the US: The Kuznets Hypothesis Revisited. Economic Systems, 36(1), 127-144.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Savings and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Test. Applied Economics, 91, 1979–1990.
  • Norris, E. D., Kochhar, K., Suphaphiphat, N., Ricka, F., & Tsounta, E. (2015). Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective. SDN/15/13, IMF Policy Paper, Washington.
  • OECD (2016), https://data.oecd.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 30.06.2017).
  • ONGAN, T. H. (2004). Gelir Eşitsizliği, Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ters U Eğrisi. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 54(1), 153-165.
  • Özdemir, D., Emsen, Ö. S., Gencer, A. H., & Kılıç, C. H. (2011). Ekonomik Büyüme ve Gelir Dağılımı İlişkileri: Geçiş Ekonomileri Deneyimi. In International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 440-447.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. in: S.Storm (Ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, chapter 11, Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, J. S. (2000). Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables. Journal of Econometrics, 97, 293-343.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, J. S. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, s. 289 – 326.
  • Piketty, T., (2005). Top Income Shares in the Long Run: An Overview. Journal of the European Economic Association 3, 382-392.Rodolphe, D. & Verardi, V. (2012). Refitting the Kuznets Curve. Economics Letters 116(2), 258-261.
  • Rubin, A., & Segal, D. (2015). The Effects of Economic Growth on Income Inequality in the US. Journal of Macroeconomics, 45, 258-273.
  • Solt, F. (2009). Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database. Social Science Quarterly, 90, s. 231-242.
  • Tokatlioğlu, İ., & Atan, M. (2007). Türkiye’de Bölgeler Arası Gelişmişlik Düzeyi ve Gelir Dağılımı Eşitsizliği: Kuznets Eğrisi Geçerli Mi?. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 18(65): 25-58.
  • Topuz, S. G., & Dağdemir, Ö. (2016). Ekonomik Büyüme ve Gelir Eşitsizliği İlişkisi: Kuznets Ters-U Hipotezi’nin Geçerliliği. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(13), 115-130.
  • Tribble, R. (1999). A Restatement of the S‐Curve Hypothesis. Review of Development Economics, 3(2), 207-214.
  • TUİK, (2016), http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1011 (Erişim Tarihi: 22.06.2017).
  • Uzgören, N., & Uzgören, E. (2005). Zaman Serilerinde Sahte Regresyon Sorunu ve Reel Kamu Harcamalarına Yönelik Bir Ekonometrik Model Uygulaması, Akademik Bakış, 5, 1-14.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F. (2012). Eğitim Harcamaları, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Gelir Dağılımı İlişkisi, Yayınlanmış Doktora Tezi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Sakarya.
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Issue
Authors

Güray Akalin

Rabia İnci Özbek

İsmail Çifçi

Publication Date October 31, 2018
Submission Date September 21, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 20 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Akalin, G., Özbek, R. İ., & Çifçi, İ. (2018). TÜRKİYE’DE GELİR DAĞILIMI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(4), 59-76. https://doi.org/10.21180/iibfdkastamonu.462588