Research Article
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Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 111 - 124, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.909410

Abstract

Supporting Institution

ESOGÜ Bİlimsel Araştırma Projeleri Komisyonu

Project Number

2018-2456.

References

  • Ağayev, S. (2011). “İhracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 12 geçiş ekonomisi örneğinde panel eştümleme ve panel nedensellik analizleri”. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 241-254.
  • Akıncı, M.,Aktürk, E., Yılmaz, Ö. (2012). “Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: opec ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için panel veri analizi”. Uludağ Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 31(2), 1-17.
  • Akıncı, M.,Aktürk, E., Yılmaz, Ö. (2013). “Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: opec ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için zaman serisi analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1), 349-361.
  • Alagöz, M. Alacahan, N. D., Akarsu, Y. (2017). “Petrol fiyatlarının makro ekonomi üzerindeki etkisi-ülke karşılaştırmaları ile panel veri analizi”. KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 19(33), 144-150.
  • Bayraç, H.N. (2019). “Küresel petrol piyasasındaki fiyat dalgalanmalarının ekonomik etkileri”. Yalova Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(19), 44-59.
  • BP (2019), BP Statistical Review of World Energy 68th Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf. Erişim Tarihi: 04.12.2019.
  • Bouzid, A. (2012). “The relationship of oil prices and economic growth in Tunisia: A vector error correction model analysis”, The Romanian Economic Journal, 15(43), 3-22.
  • Elbeydi, K.R., Hamuda, A.M.,Gazda, V. (2010). “The relationship between export and economic growth in Libya” Arab Jamahiriya, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 17(1), 69-76.
  • Elmi, Z., Jahadi, M. (2011), “Oil price shocks and economic growth:evidence from OPEC and OECD”. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(6), 627–635.
  • Ezgi, S., Özkılıç, C. (2016). “Petrol fiyatlarının oluşumunu etkileyen faktörler”. Petro Bülten, TMMOB Petrol Mühendisleri Odası, Sayı:1,18-21.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011).” The interaction between oil price and economic growth”. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, Issue 13, 127-140.
  • Hamilton J. D., (2009).” Understanding crude oil prices”.The Energy Journal, 30(2), 179-205.
  • Jimenez, R., Sanchez, M. (2005). “Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries”, Applied Economics, 37, 201–228.
  • Mohsen, N., Asghan, M. (2011). “Natural resource abundance, dutch disease and economic growth in oil economics”. Quarterly Energy And Statistics, Special Issue, 61, 631-652.
  • Ulusoy, R., Yazıcı, E., Altun, İ. (2017).“Petrol fiyatlarında yaşanan belirsizlik ve Ortadoğu’da sürdürülebilir büyüme: Ortadoğu ekonomilerinin çeşitlendirilmesi”. Yalova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(15), 31-45.
  • Uzuner, M. T. (2018). “Dünya ham petrol fiyatlarının ekonomi politiği üzerine bir inceleme”. Yalova Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(17), 106-127.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F., Gülmez, A. (2013). OPEC ülkelerinde Hollanda hastalığı: petrol fiyatları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin ekonometrik bir analizi”. Sosyoekonomi Dergisi, 9(19), 117-140.
  • https://www.opec.org, (OPEC Annual Statistical Bulltein 2019) date of access: 15.10.2019.
  • http://petroturk.com/akaryakit/opec-petrol-ihracatindan-711-milyar-dolar-elde-etti). Tarihi: 04.12.2019.
  • http://www.leftlanebrain.com/oil-and-gas-price/ date of access: 04.12.2019.
  • http://www.tpao.gov.tr. date of access: 04.12.2019.
  • https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102314/understanding-benchmark-oils-brent-blend-wti-and-dubai.asp. date of access: 08.12.2019.
  • http://www. eia.gov date of access: 04.12.2019.

The Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Oil Price, Economic Growth and Export in OPEC Countries

Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 111 - 124, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.909410

Abstract

Oil is one of the main inputs demanded by the production, heating and transportation sectors in many developed and developing countries. In countries where the rate of industrialization and growth is high, dependence on oil is constantly increasing. Factors such as the fact that large oil reserves are located in certain regions of the world, differences in oil extraction costs, oil supply and demand imbalances cause oil prices to fluctuate.
The macroeconomic effects of fluctuations in oil prices affect the economies of oil exporting and importing countries in different ways. Oil price increases have an increasing effect on energy export revenues and government budget revenues in oil exporting countries. In oil importing countries, it has negative effects on production costs, external balance, growth and production capacity.
In an economy dependent on oil export revenues; the presence of new reserves or the increase in oil production changes the structure of production and export sectors in favor of oil. As a result of the increase in petroleum-weighted foreign trade, more foreign currency enters the country and the foreign trade balance deteriorates. In addition, shifting the investments in the country to petroleum and petroleum products predominantly causes the neglect of other sectors, in other words, to exclude the effect of their production and exports.
Countries that generate income based on oil exports lose their competitiveness in foreign markets because they cannot invest in R & D, technology and productivity. This situation causes countries to have an import-dependent economic structure, increase their current account deficits and decrease their growth rates.
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between average annual crude oil price (nominal value in USD), gross domestic product (2010 prices and $) and export (2010 prices and $) for OPEC member countries by panel data analysis.

Project Number

2018-2456.

References

  • Ağayev, S. (2011). “İhracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 12 geçiş ekonomisi örneğinde panel eştümleme ve panel nedensellik analizleri”. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 241-254.
  • Akıncı, M.,Aktürk, E., Yılmaz, Ö. (2012). “Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: opec ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için panel veri analizi”. Uludağ Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 31(2), 1-17.
  • Akıncı, M.,Aktürk, E., Yılmaz, Ö. (2013). “Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: opec ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için zaman serisi analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1), 349-361.
  • Alagöz, M. Alacahan, N. D., Akarsu, Y. (2017). “Petrol fiyatlarının makro ekonomi üzerindeki etkisi-ülke karşılaştırmaları ile panel veri analizi”. KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 19(33), 144-150.
  • Bayraç, H.N. (2019). “Küresel petrol piyasasındaki fiyat dalgalanmalarının ekonomik etkileri”. Yalova Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(19), 44-59.
  • BP (2019), BP Statistical Review of World Energy 68th Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf. Erişim Tarihi: 04.12.2019.
  • Bouzid, A. (2012). “The relationship of oil prices and economic growth in Tunisia: A vector error correction model analysis”, The Romanian Economic Journal, 15(43), 3-22.
  • Elbeydi, K.R., Hamuda, A.M.,Gazda, V. (2010). “The relationship between export and economic growth in Libya” Arab Jamahiriya, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 17(1), 69-76.
  • Elmi, Z., Jahadi, M. (2011), “Oil price shocks and economic growth:evidence from OPEC and OECD”. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(6), 627–635.
  • Ezgi, S., Özkılıç, C. (2016). “Petrol fiyatlarının oluşumunu etkileyen faktörler”. Petro Bülten, TMMOB Petrol Mühendisleri Odası, Sayı:1,18-21.
  • Ghalayini, L. (2011).” The interaction between oil price and economic growth”. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, Issue 13, 127-140.
  • Hamilton J. D., (2009).” Understanding crude oil prices”.The Energy Journal, 30(2), 179-205.
  • Jimenez, R., Sanchez, M. (2005). “Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries”, Applied Economics, 37, 201–228.
  • Mohsen, N., Asghan, M. (2011). “Natural resource abundance, dutch disease and economic growth in oil economics”. Quarterly Energy And Statistics, Special Issue, 61, 631-652.
  • Ulusoy, R., Yazıcı, E., Altun, İ. (2017).“Petrol fiyatlarında yaşanan belirsizlik ve Ortadoğu’da sürdürülebilir büyüme: Ortadoğu ekonomilerinin çeşitlendirilmesi”. Yalova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(15), 31-45.
  • Uzuner, M. T. (2018). “Dünya ham petrol fiyatlarının ekonomi politiği üzerine bir inceleme”. Yalova Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(17), 106-127.
  • Yardımcıoğlu, F., Gülmez, A. (2013). OPEC ülkelerinde Hollanda hastalığı: petrol fiyatları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin ekonometrik bir analizi”. Sosyoekonomi Dergisi, 9(19), 117-140.
  • https://www.opec.org, (OPEC Annual Statistical Bulltein 2019) date of access: 15.10.2019.
  • http://petroturk.com/akaryakit/opec-petrol-ihracatindan-711-milyar-dolar-elde-etti). Tarihi: 04.12.2019.
  • http://www.leftlanebrain.com/oil-and-gas-price/ date of access: 04.12.2019.
  • http://www.tpao.gov.tr. date of access: 04.12.2019.
  • https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102314/understanding-benchmark-oils-brent-blend-wti-and-dubai.asp. date of access: 08.12.2019.
  • http://www. eia.gov date of access: 04.12.2019.
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Operation
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Fatih Çemrek 0000-0002-6528-7159

Hüseyin Naci Bayraç 0000-0001-9212-987X

Project Number 2018-2456.
Publication Date June 30, 2021
Submission Date April 4, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 9 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Çemrek, F., & Bayraç, H. N. (2021). The Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Oil Price, Economic Growth and Export in OPEC Countries. Alphanumeric Journal, 9(1), 111-124. https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.909410

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