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THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP

Year 2023, Issue: 7, 55 - 75, 30.04.2023

Mehmet Alkanalka

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine War shocked Europe and led to radical transformations in its security architecture. This article aims to understand the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit. Ten Ukraine's white papers for the period 2007-2021 and three Russia's national security strategy documents were examined, as well as the changes in the international structure, the threat perceptions of the warring party, and the effects of the leader changes on the war. Following the end of the Cold War, Russia acted suspiciously towards the NATO and its unilateral expansion eastward. Russia and Ukraine’s military capabilities are incomparably different. It is concluded that NATO, the USA, the changing international structure, and the different priorities of leadership in Ukraine are the main factors of the war. It is understood that the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, which gave green light to NATO's membership in Ukraine, was an important turning point on the road to the Ukraine War. In conclusion, the approaching Russia-Ukraine War was foreseen in the examined Russian and Ukrainian documents. Although it has been stated in Ukraine’s White Papers that its NATO membership is indispensable for its security and that a possible large-scale military action by Russia is expected, NATO has not taken any concrete steps in this regard.

Keywords

neorealism neoclassical realism balance of threat Russia-Ukraine War white paper

References

  • Antczak, Anna. (2018). Russia’s Strategic Culture: Prisoner of Imperial History? Athenaeum, 60, 223–242.
  • Askew, Joshua. (2022, November 29). NATO meets to talk Ukraine at scene of one of its most controversial decisions. Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/29/nato- meets-to-talk-ukraine-at-scene-of-one-of-its-most-controversial-decisions
  • Ayres, Sabra. (2014, May 29). Why are Ukraine’s armed forces so ineffective? The Christian Science Monitor. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0529/Why-are- Ukraine-s-armed-forces-so-ineffective
  • Bowen, Glenn. (2009). Document Analysis as a Qualitative Research Method. Qualitative Research Journal, 9, 27-40.
  • Calleo, D. P. (2009). How to Govern a Multipolar World. Current History, 108(721), 361– 367.
  • Cook, Lorne and McGrath, Stephen. (2022, November 28).14 years later, NATO is set to renew its vow to Ukraine.
  • Apnews. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin- nato-europe-bucharest-1b3564af002c8e879c304a6a85bf1f97
  • Erlanger, Steven and Myers, Steven Lee. (2008, April 3). NATO Allies Oppose Bush on Georgia and Ukraine. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/world/europe/03nato.html
  • Hermann, Margaret G. and Hagan, Joe D. (1998). International Decision Making: Leadership Matters. Foreign Policy, 110, 124–137.
  • Litera, B. (1994). The Kozyrev Doctrine - a Russian Variation on the Monroe Doctrine. Perspectives, 4, 45–52.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (1994). The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security, 19(3), 5–49.
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2008). 2007 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/155178/Ukraine%20white%20book%202007.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2010). 2009 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/155181/Ukraine%20White%20Book%202009.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2011). 2010 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/156823/Book_WP_2010_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2012). 2011 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/167335/WB_Eng_final_2011.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2015). 2014 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2014_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2016). 2015 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2015_eng_WEB.PDF
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2018). 2017 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB-2017_eng_Final_WEB.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2019). 2018 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2018_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2021). 2019-20 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2019_2020_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2022). 2021 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WhiteBook_2021_Defens_policy_of_ Ukraine.pdf
  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. (2014,25 March). Joint Statement by the United States and Ukraine. https://web.archive.org/web/20140419014331/http://mfa.gov.ua/en/news- feeds/foreign-offices-news/20572-spilyna-zajava-ukrajini-ta-spoluchenih-shtativ- ameriki
  • Munich Security Conference. (2007). A Speech Delivered at the MSC 2007 by the President Vladimir Putin. https://is.muni.cz/th/xlghl/DP_Fillinger_Speeches.pdf
  • NATO. (2008, April 03). Bucharest Summit Declaration. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
  • NTV. (2022, February 08). Putin: Ukrayna NATO’ya katılırsa Avrupa ülkeleri çatışmanın içine çekilecek. NTV. https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/son-dakika-haberiputin- ukrayna-natoya-katilirsa-avrupa-ulkeleri-catismanin-icine- cekilecek,RkMeh4_NsEWMa1Vw_L3eQg
  • Presidency of Russia. (2009). National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2020. http://kremlin.ru/supplement/424
  • Presidency of Russia (2014). Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
  • Presidency of Russia. (2015). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. https://www.russiamatters.org/node/21421
  • Presidency of Russia. (2021). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202107030001
  • Presidency of Russia (2021, December 21). Expanded meeting of the Collegium of the Ministry of Defense. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67402
  • Ratti, Luca. (2006). Post-cold war NATO and international relations theory: The case for neo-classical realism. Journal of Transatlantic Studies, 4(1), 81-110.
  • Reuters. (1992, October 02). THE 1992 CAMPAIGN; Excerpts from Speech by Clinton on U.S. Role. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/02/us/the-1992- campaign-excerpts-from-speech-by-clinton-on-us-role.html
  • Rose, Gideon. (1998). Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144-172.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry. (2008, 12 July). The Foreign Policy Concept of The Russian Federation. https://russiaeu.ru/userfiles/file/foreign_policy_concept_english.pdf
  • Russian Foreign Ministry.(2013). The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2013. https://www.voltairenet.org/article202037.html
  • Russian Foreign Ministry. (2016). Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. https://interkomitet.com/foreign-policy/basic-documents/foreign-policy-concept-of-the-russian-federation-approved-by-president-of-the-russian-federation-vladimir-putin-on-november-30-2016/
  • Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. (2000). Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited. International Security, 25, no. 3 (2000), 128–61.
  • Talukdar, Indrani. (2017). Russia's New Foreign Policy 2016. Indian Council of World Affairs, https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=577&lid=519
  • The Japan Times. (2022, November 29). As NATO leaders meet, Ukraine waits on 14-year- old membership pledge. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/29/world/ukraine-nato-meeting/
  • The World Bank. (2022). Military Expenditure. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.P1?end=2020&locations=UA&st art=2007
  • Troianovski, Anton, Cohen, Roger and Rogers, Katie. (2022, February 07). Putin Warns the West and Ukraine, but Keeps His Intentions a Mystery. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/world/europe/putin-macron-russia-france- ukraine.html
  • U.S. Department of Defense. (2018). The National Defense Strategy of United States of America. https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy- Summary.pdf
  • Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43.
  • Walt, Stephen M. (1991). The Renaissance of Security Studies. International Studies Quarterly, 35(2), 211-239.
  • Waltz, Kenneth N. (1967). Foreign Policy and Democratic Politics: The American and British Experience. Boston: Little, Brown.
  • Waltz, Kenneth N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw Hill.

THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP

Year 2023, Issue: 7, 55 - 75, 30.04.2023

Mehmet Alkanalka

Abstract

Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı Avrupa'yı sarstı ve Avrupa güvenlik mimarisinde köklü dönüşümlere yol açtı. Bu makalede, 2008 NATO Bükreş Zirvesi'nden savaşın çıkmasına kadar Rusya-Ukrayna çatışmasının dinamiklerinin anlaşılması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Ukrayna'nın 2007-2021 dönemine ilişkin on beyaz kitabı ve Rusya'nın üç ulusal güvenlik strateji belgesinin yanı sıra uluslararası yapıdaki değişimler, savaşan tarafın tehdit algılamaları ve lider değişikliklerinin etkileri irdelenmektedir. Soğuk Savaş'ın sona ermesinin ardından Rusya, NATO'ya ve onun doğuya doğru tek taraflı genişlemesine şüpheyle yaklaştı. Rusya ve Ukrayna'nın askeri yetenekleri kıyaslanamayacak kadar farklıdır. NATO, ABD, değişen uluslararası yapı ile Ukrayna’daki liderliğin farklı önceliklerinin savaşın ana etkenleri olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Ukrayna'nın NATO üyeliğine yeşil ışık yakan 2008 NATO Bükreş Zirvesi'nin Ukrayna Savaşı'na giden yolda önemli bir dönüm noktası olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, incelenen Rus ve Ukrayna belgelerinde yaklaşan Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı öngörülmüştür. Ukrayna'nın Beyaz Kitaplarında NATO üyeliğinin güvenliği için vazgeçilmez olduğu ve Rusya'dan olası geniş çaplı bir askeri harekatın beklendiği belirtilmesine rağmen, NATO bu konuda somut bir adım atmamıştır.

Keywords

neorealizm neoklasik realizm tehdit dengesi Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı beyaz kitap

References

  • Antczak, Anna. (2018). Russia’s Strategic Culture: Prisoner of Imperial History? Athenaeum, 60, 223–242.
  • Askew, Joshua. (2022, November 29). NATO meets to talk Ukraine at scene of one of its most controversial decisions. Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/29/nato- meets-to-talk-ukraine-at-scene-of-one-of-its-most-controversial-decisions
  • Ayres, Sabra. (2014, May 29). Why are Ukraine’s armed forces so ineffective? The Christian Science Monitor. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0529/Why-are- Ukraine-s-armed-forces-so-ineffective
  • Bowen, Glenn. (2009). Document Analysis as a Qualitative Research Method. Qualitative Research Journal, 9, 27-40.
  • Calleo, D. P. (2009). How to Govern a Multipolar World. Current History, 108(721), 361– 367.
  • Cook, Lorne and McGrath, Stephen. (2022, November 28).14 years later, NATO is set to renew its vow to Ukraine.
  • Apnews. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin- nato-europe-bucharest-1b3564af002c8e879c304a6a85bf1f97
  • Erlanger, Steven and Myers, Steven Lee. (2008, April 3). NATO Allies Oppose Bush on Georgia and Ukraine. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/world/europe/03nato.html
  • Hermann, Margaret G. and Hagan, Joe D. (1998). International Decision Making: Leadership Matters. Foreign Policy, 110, 124–137.
  • Litera, B. (1994). The Kozyrev Doctrine - a Russian Variation on the Monroe Doctrine. Perspectives, 4, 45–52.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (1994). The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security, 19(3), 5–49.
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2008). 2007 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/155178/Ukraine%20white%20book%202007.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2010). 2009 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/155181/Ukraine%20White%20Book%202009.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2011). 2010 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/156823/Book_WP_2010_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2012). 2011 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/167335/WB_Eng_final_2011.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2015). 2014 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2014_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2016). 2015 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2015_eng_WEB.PDF
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2018). 2017 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB-2017_eng_Final_WEB.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2019). 2018 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2018_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2021). 2019-20 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2019_2020_eng.pdf
  • Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2022). 2021 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WhiteBook_2021_Defens_policy_of_ Ukraine.pdf
  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. (2014,25 March). Joint Statement by the United States and Ukraine. https://web.archive.org/web/20140419014331/http://mfa.gov.ua/en/news- feeds/foreign-offices-news/20572-spilyna-zajava-ukrajini-ta-spoluchenih-shtativ- ameriki
  • Munich Security Conference. (2007). A Speech Delivered at the MSC 2007 by the President Vladimir Putin. https://is.muni.cz/th/xlghl/DP_Fillinger_Speeches.pdf
  • NATO. (2008, April 03). Bucharest Summit Declaration. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
  • NTV. (2022, February 08). Putin: Ukrayna NATO’ya katılırsa Avrupa ülkeleri çatışmanın içine çekilecek. NTV. https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/son-dakika-haberiputin- ukrayna-natoya-katilirsa-avrupa-ulkeleri-catismanin-icine- cekilecek,RkMeh4_NsEWMa1Vw_L3eQg
  • Presidency of Russia. (2009). National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2020. http://kremlin.ru/supplement/424
  • Presidency of Russia (2014). Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
  • Presidency of Russia. (2015). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. https://www.russiamatters.org/node/21421
  • Presidency of Russia. (2021). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202107030001
  • Presidency of Russia (2021, December 21). Expanded meeting of the Collegium of the Ministry of Defense. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67402
  • Ratti, Luca. (2006). Post-cold war NATO and international relations theory: The case for neo-classical realism. Journal of Transatlantic Studies, 4(1), 81-110.
  • Reuters. (1992, October 02). THE 1992 CAMPAIGN; Excerpts from Speech by Clinton on U.S. Role. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/02/us/the-1992- campaign-excerpts-from-speech-by-clinton-on-us-role.html
  • Rose, Gideon. (1998). Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144-172.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry. (2008, 12 July). The Foreign Policy Concept of The Russian Federation. https://russiaeu.ru/userfiles/file/foreign_policy_concept_english.pdf
  • Russian Foreign Ministry.(2013). The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2013. https://www.voltairenet.org/article202037.html
  • Russian Foreign Ministry. (2016). Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. https://interkomitet.com/foreign-policy/basic-documents/foreign-policy-concept-of-the-russian-federation-approved-by-president-of-the-russian-federation-vladimir-putin-on-november-30-2016/
  • Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. (2000). Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited. International Security, 25, no. 3 (2000), 128–61.
  • Talukdar, Indrani. (2017). Russia's New Foreign Policy 2016. Indian Council of World Affairs, https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=577&lid=519
  • The Japan Times. (2022, November 29). As NATO leaders meet, Ukraine waits on 14-year- old membership pledge. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/29/world/ukraine-nato-meeting/
  • The World Bank. (2022). Military Expenditure. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.P1?end=2020&locations=UA&st art=2007
  • Troianovski, Anton, Cohen, Roger and Rogers, Katie. (2022, February 07). Putin Warns the West and Ukraine, but Keeps His Intentions a Mystery. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/world/europe/putin-macron-russia-france- ukraine.html
  • U.S. Department of Defense. (2018). The National Defense Strategy of United States of America. https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy- Summary.pdf
  • Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43.
  • Walt, Stephen M. (1991). The Renaissance of Security Studies. International Studies Quarterly, 35(2), 211-239.
  • Waltz, Kenneth N. (1967). Foreign Policy and Democratic Politics: The American and British Experience. Boston: Little, Brown.
  • Waltz, Kenneth N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw Hill.
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Details

Primary Language English
Subjects International Relations
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Mehmet Alkanalka 0000-0002-2311-935X

Early Pub Date April 28, 2023
Publication Date April 30, 2023
Submission Date January 8, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 7

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APA Alkanalka, M. (2023). THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP. Journal of International Relations and Political Science Studies(7), 55-75. https://doi.org//jirps.1231215
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