Abstract
This paper describes the
prediction of the accidents and incidents by modelling the faults that are hard
to be predicted, and forms the stochastic processes in railways. As it is seen,
the root causes of the occurrence of the accidents and incidents in railways
are the technical faults, the organizational faults, the staff faults, the
third-party faults, the other faults and some parameters affecting these faults
holidays, seasonal effects etc. The system model was set up by considering the
above-mentioned faults and the causes as the inputs of the model and the
accidents and the incidents as the outputs of the model. The real values of the
accidents and the incidents were compared with the predicted values by using
Artificial Neural Networks-ANN and Support Vector Machines-SVM. The results,
which were acquired by this article, are considered as a guide because of the
absence of any studies about the prediction of the accidents caused by the
faults.
References
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- [2] Islam D. M. Z., Laparidou K., Burgess A., “Cost effective future derailment mitigation techniques for rail freight traffic management in Europe”, Transportation Research Part C, Accepted 19 June 2015.
- [3] Kocaarslan İ., Karaman S., Apaydın İ., Gör E. , “Demiryolu Emniyet Yönetim Sistemi ve TCDD’de Uygulanması”, I. Uluslararası Raylı Sistemler Çalıştayı, Karabük /TURKEY, 2012. (In Turkish)
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- [8] Sivri N. , Özcan K. , Uçan O. N. , Akıncılar O. , “Estimation of Stream Temperature in Değirmendere River (Trabzon-Turkey) Using Artificial Neural Network Model”, Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, vol. 9, 2009, 145-150.
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Abstract
References
- [1] Markovic N., Milinkovic S., Tikhonov K. S., Schonfeld P., “Analyzing passenger train arrival delays with support vector regression”, Transportation Research Part C, vol. 56, 2015, 251–262.
- [2] Islam D. M. Z., Laparidou K., Burgess A., “Cost effective future derailment mitigation techniques for rail freight traffic management in Europe”, Transportation Research Part C, Accepted 19 June 2015.
- [3] Kocaarslan İ., Karaman S., Apaydın İ., Gör E. , “Demiryolu Emniyet Yönetim Sistemi ve TCDD’de Uygulanması”, I. Uluslararası Raylı Sistemler Çalıştayı, Karabük /TURKEY, 2012. (In Turkish)
- [4] Reason J.T., “Human Error: Models And Management”, British Medical Journal, vol. 320, 2000, 768-770.
- [5] Karabacak S. A., “Implementation of Monitoring and Analysis Method on Railway Safety Management System”, Master Thesis, Istanbul University, 2014. (In Turkish)
- [6] Reason J.T., “ Human Error”, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990, ISBN: 978-0521314190.
- [7] Karaman S., Kocaarslan İ., Tiryaki H., “Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Safety Management Systems in Railways”, International Congress on Advanced Railway Engineering, 2-4 March 2015, İstanbul, 262-267.
- [8] Sivri N. , Özcan K. , Uçan O. N. , Akıncılar O. , “Estimation of Stream Temperature in Değirmendere River (Trabzon-Turkey) Using Artificial Neural Network Model”, Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, vol. 9, 2009, 145-150.
- [9] Alp M., Cığızoğlu K., “Rainfall-Runoff Relation to Different Methods of Artificial Neural Network Modeling.”, İTU Journal/ d engineering, vol. 3(1), 2004, 80-88. (In Turkish)
- [10] Akgundogdu A., “Trabecular Bones Structure Analyzing Using Artificial Intelligence Methods”, Ph.D. Thesis, Istanbul University, 2009. (In Turkish)
Details
| Journal Section | Articles |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | July 27, 2017 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2017 Volume: 17 Issue: 2 |
